Assigning blame is soothing but not productive so it’s time to move directly to improvement. Winning elections is like any other business so best to start with an old school SWOT analysis of the GOP.
Strengths:
–By any objective measure foundational Republican economic and security policies are superior to Democrat policies
–The U.S. voting public skews to the center right ideologically
–In the aggregate economic leverage resides with small business owners and entrepreneurs who have a zealous belief in free markets
–The overwhelming majority of citizens want the country to thrive
Weaknesses
–Lack of cohesion. The natural bent towards liberty, free will, individualism and accountability in those who gravitate towards the Republican party by nature makes those people harder to organize. (the old herding cats analogy)
–Not identifying the game. Coach Lombardi once said “dancing is a contact sport, football is a collision sport.” Republicans dance. Democrats collide.
–Short term vs. long term. At any moment in time the rules are the rules. There are many reasons to object to various voting procedures (ballot harvesting, early voting, mail in etc.) Trying to change those rules is fine but that’s the long game. The short game is to win the game, today. Figure out how to use the rules to your advantage regardless of your feelings.
–Scouting. Scouting your opponent entails understanding everything from the organizing principles (including the sources of the principles) through identifying specific ‘tells’. A good starting point is for every Republican operative to read the following three books.
The Prince- Niccolo Machiavelli
Rules for Radicals- Saul Alinsky
The Autobiography of Malcom X- Malcolm X
Self scouting is equally important. It requires ruthless, brutal honesty.
(Talk to someone who’s been through rehab about how that works).
–Well intentioned people with fundamentally incorrect assumptions. There are numerous Republican thought leaders with pure motives and the highest character who have convinced themselves that intentions are downstream from tactics. They are not. The standard lament is that “ if we do X we are just as bad as they are”. Tactics are tools. A hammer does not have intent or a moral code. The person wielding it does. Your intent/purpose/character existed prior to using the tool. Using the tool didn’t change it. Use all available tools in order to achieve your honorable objective.
–Middle Management. The GOP has staffed its state and local party organizations with hard working well intentioned people. That is necessary but not sufficient. The tasks necessary to acquire customers (votes) require the skills possessed by a wider range of marketing professionals. The most costly mistake any marketer can make is to use themselves as a proxy for the target market. Anytime you hear a sentence begin with “Nobody I know does/says/thinks…” stick your fingers in your ears and run screaming from the room. Your marketing plan will fail. The ancient and venerable marketing first principle “Do the dogs like the dog food?” also has a practical application. Imagine you are the product manager for Puppy Chow. You would be forced to depend solely on the behavioral data gleaned from the actual puppies. Your opinion (and your friends etc. opinions) would be meaningless. Use this construct in all of your marketing decisions even if you happen to be of the same species as the target market.
–Problem solving technique. The first three steps in the problem solving process are:
Define success. In any political campaign success is a legally counted vote for your candidate. Anything outside of that is imaginary
Assign measurable benchmarks. In an election that ultimately means one more vote than your nearest opponent.
Identify the unit of measurement. In an election the unit of measurement is a vote that counts.
–Organizational structure. The two key leadership functions are fundraising and operations. These are completely different skill sets and should be executed by two different people. Having one person responsible for both is always a mistake.
Opportunities:
–Improve brand. Democrat candidates have always succeeded by appealing to the base mammalian desires of fear and greed. The Democrat message skips nuance and goes directly to “Fear Republicans” and “we will pay you for your vote” (using an unlimited supply of rich people’s, aka taxpayers, money).
Republicans and Independents, while still beholden to mammalian motivations, require a more uplifting brand message (see Reagan, Ronald) Republicans can rebrand fear and greed as protection and reward. Specifically “we will protect you from the bad guys” and “we will reward you for your vote” (with earned prosperity).
–Recruit electable candidates. The first step in identifying electable candidates is understanding the target market. The most effective tool for doing this is market segmentation. The time has come to evolve from the tired, barnacle encrusted methodology that uses characteristics as the sort criteria for segmentation. We now have dependable technology that allows us to sort on behavior which inevitably leads to more powerful and cost effective market segmentation. Once the party understands the segments it should be easy to fit a candidate to an identified segment(s) instead of the other way around. Oh, and also once a candidate is identified perhaps implement a vetting process.
–Let opponents fail. To paraphrase Napoleon “if your opponent is making a mistake don’t interrupt” There are large and influential segments of the Democrat party that benefit from failing schools and rampant crime. The objective of these groups is to turn the large urban areas in the U.S. into one party kleptocracies. Let them. Direct resources towards behavioral segments whose objective is improvement.
–Run complementary campaigns. Conventional wisdom says the top of the ticket can pull candidates across the finish line. The reverse can also be true. Supporting down ticket candidates who are focused on hot button local issues (e.g. school boards, city councils, county commissions) can energize voters and drive turnout that benefits candidates at the top of the ticket. There are also consequential state races (e.g. Attorney General, State Treasurer) that can act as force multipliers [@mkhammer has a podcast segment on state treasurers that’s worth a listen]
Threats:
–Fighting the last war. It is said that “he who doesn’t learn from the past is doomed to repeat it.” If you have free will you can’t be doomed. The better organizing principle is “no one steps in the same river twice.” The Democrat party is masterful at baiting Republican’s into defending the past. Be a Buddhist or Elsa from Frozen. Let it go. Voters want to hear about the future.
–Election interference. Forget about the Russians The most virulent form of election interference is practiced by the Democrat Party in plain sight. From censorship to funding third parties to promoting fringe primary candidates, Democrats have outplayed Republican operatives at every turn. (Why isn’t there a well funded green party active in every college town in the U.S. siphoning off Democrat voters?)
–Fund raising. Another area where Republicans are consistently and historically outplayed. The @RuthlessPodcast guys have an in depth description of the epicly dysfunctional fundraising protocols employed by the Republican Party. Commandment 11a. Don’t grift a fellow Republican.
[Author’s note: I made 32,321 campaign phone calls this cycle so the above does not qualify as armchair quarterbacking].
Next time work harder.